Time to Panic?
I keep reading about and hearing about how much this season resembles 1969. Well I wasn’t alive then, and I don’t particularly want to think about any similarities between the two seasons. But some say that the comparison does raise the question, is it time to be worried? If you’re reading this and you’re a Cubs fan, then you already know the answer. If you’re not a Cub fan, let me inform you that we, as a fan base, are always worried. It could be April 2nd or September 27th and we would be equally as worried about our chances to go all the way. It’s something that never leaves a true Cubs fan. Yes, the current slide where we have lost 7 of 8 (including 2 of 3 to our final cupcake opponent of the season) is somewhat troubling, but Milwaukee keeps losing and we still have a 4-game cushion for the best record in the entire NL and the second most wins in the entire MLB.
And yes, the remaining schedule is a killer. 13 out of 19 games on the road and all against teams above .500 who still have something to play for. 6 each versus St. Louis and Milwaukee. That may be frightening to some, but the way I see it is that the Cubs have their destiny in their hands. Scoreboard watching will basically not come into play, which means the Cubs can decide their own fate. Actually, I take it back, that is pretty frightening.
On top of all this, two of the Cubs top starting pitchers are having arm troubles. And, no, I didn’t say top two because I think Ryan Dempster has been the ace of the staff all year long and should start game 1 of a potential NLDS at Wrigley. I, like all other fans, will be worried about them, but I see no way that Big Z misses any starts in a potential October, or late September if the race tightens. Harden is another story, and I say that as long as we have this cushion of 3+ games we give him as much time as he needs to rest up.
So where does all of that leave us? An 86-57 record, 4 game lead in the NL Central and 7 game lead on a playoff spot, with less than 3 weeks left in the regular season. Not knowing anything else I’m pretty sure any Cubs fan would take that in a heartbeat.
A Look Back
The Cubs enter into a series against Philadelphia tonight in their first battle against a potential playoff team in 3 weeks (4 if you don’t count St. Louis). The Cubs take a major league best 83-50 record into tonight’s game, having won 5 in a row, 13 of their last 14 on the road, and unbelievably 9 straight series dating back the 4 game sweep of the Brewers in Miller Park. Here at CubBlog, we feel it is our duty to remind all you Cub fans of how we got to this unfamiliar place by looking back at some of the games that you may or may not remember, but were crucial in getting the Cubs to where they are today.
In Chronological Order:
1. April 5th vs. Houston
After dropping 2 of 3 to Milwaukee to start the year and the first game of the series to Houston the day before, the Cubs were in danger of dropping to 1-4 on the year as they trailed the Astros 5-3 going into the bottom of the 7th inning with Astros ace Roy Oswalt still on the hill. The Cubs scratched out a run on a walk, infield single and 2 ground outs before Derrek Lee tied it with a single and the legend of Kosuke Fukudome grew even larger when he hit a tie breaking 2-run double to give the Cubs the lead and chase Oswalt from the game. The Cubs needed all the insurance they could get, holding on to win 9-7. The Cubs went on to win 4 straight after that, including our number 2 game below.
2. April 7th / 9th @ Pittsburgh:
The Cubs were lucky to have a day off between these games, as they played enough innings in these two to last them a 3rd game. After going 2-8 in extra inning games in 2007, the Cubs took game 1 in 12 innings and game 2 in 15, blowing a 1-run lead in the 9th and a 2-run lead in the 14th before Felix Pie (a name we won’t hear much more this year) knocked a 2-run single with the bases loaded in the 15th. In a theme we will see more of this year, Sean Marshall did whatever the team needed, making an appearance out of the bullpen and picking up his first career save in the 2nd game.
3. May 11th vs. Arizona
It was a cold, dreary, rainy Mother’s Day in Chicago, and the Cubs were going for a sweep of the Diamondbacks. Although they had completed a 2-game sweep of the Mets in April, many touted this series as the Cubs first real test against a contending team. After beating Dan Haren in game 1 and coming from behind against the DBacks’ pen in game 2, Carlos Zambrano was slated to face off against Randy Johnson in game 3, but the weather forced both managers to take precautions, and those of us in the stands were left to see Sean Gallagher face Edgar Gonzalez. What ensued was the Cubs’ second straight come from behind victory, with Reed Johnson hitting his first HR as Cub to tie the game in the 7th and Daryle Ward coming through in the 8th with a huge 2-run double with the bases loaded off the bench. Marmol and Wood each pitched a perfect inning and the Cubs swept the NL-best (at the time) DBacks.
4. May 30th vs. Colorado
The Comeback. If you’re a Cubs fan you should already be replaying this game in your head, it’s that unforgettable. With the wind blowing out and Ted “Gopher Ball” Lilly on the mound, the Rockies built an 8-0 lead after 4 innings and had a 9-1 advantage going into the bottom of 6th. That’s when Cubs fans around the country (and maybe even world) started to believe. Fukudome drove one the opposite way for a 2-run bomb, new Cub (or should I say former Cardinal) Jim Edmonds drove a solo blast to center, Henry Blanco hit his first homer since 2006 to make it 9-6, Edmonds drove a 2-run double to center and then scored on Mark DeRosa’s HR to give the Cubs a 10-9 lead that they held onto. What added to the incredibility of this game was that Theriot and Ramirez both had the day off, and Lee and Soto were each removed in the top of the 6th. Since it was a Friday day game, I didn’t get a chance to watch it live (Pat and Ron did a superb job), but this was one of a few games that I stayed up to watch the replay on Comcast at 1 AM.
5. June 20th vs. White Sox
The Cubs arrived home after a 6-game road trip that took a detour through Cooperstown, having been handed their first 3-game losing streak of the season courtesy of a sweep by the Rays. Following up the Thursday night game with the traditional Friday day game at Wrigley, the Cubs faced off against their crosstown rivals with both teams in first place, adding hype to a series that really didn’t need any more. The Cubs scored first in this one, with Derrek Lee taking another 2 on, no-out situation and turning it into a 1-0 lead with a double play. “Gopher Ball” Lilly then struck again, allowing an absolute bomb to Jermaine Dye in the second and a 2-run shot to A.J. Pierzwhatshisface in the 3rd to give the Sox a 3-1 lead. It remained that way through 6, with John Danks limiting the Cubs to just 5 hits on only 85 pitches when Ozzie Guillen removed him for a pinch hitter in the top of the 7th. Although pinch-hitter Juan Uribe singled, the Sox failed to score, and Octavio Dotel came in to pitch the bottom of the inning. Something like 3 pitches later, the game was tied at 3 as Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez went back-to-back, winning some lucky WGN Radio listener $7,000 in the back-to-back jacks game. After an an uneventful 8th and top of the 9th, Aramis Ramirez came up again in the bottom and took Scott Linebrink’s 2nd pitch into the center field shrubbery for a walk-off homer, which sparked the eventual sweep of the South siders.
6. July 12th vs. San Francisco
This was the shining debut of Rich Harden and the unraveling of Carlos Marmol. Who knew a blister on Kerry Wood’s finger would end up meaning so much to this season? Harden struck out 10 in 5.1 scoreless innings in his debut, but the Cubs pen blew a 7-0 lead, including 5 runs allowed in the 9th by Carlos Marmol during his really really really bad stretch. That guy Sean Marshall came up huge again, pitching 2 perfect innings of relief and then hitting a leadoff single in the 11th which led to the game-winning run. A loss here would have been awful for the Cubs’, especially Marmol’s confidence going into the break, but this year’s team just managed to pull another one out.
7. July 23rd @ Arizona
The game that started the Cubs on their current hot streak on the road is not coincidentally the same game that saw Alfonso Soriano return to the top of the lineup after missing nearly 6 weeks with a broken finger. Fonzie went just 1-5 with an RBI, but the Cubs offense exploded for 10 runs, including an 8th-inning grand slam from Reed Johnson which proved to be valuable insurance as the Cubs went on to win 10-6. Ted Lilly helped his own cause with a game-tying RBI single in the 5th, and pitched 6 strong innings in a quality start, a trend which he would continue through the rest of July and August. The Cubs 6-run outburst in the 8th inning also added to 2 more common themes, the Cubs scoring lots of runs in the late innings (7th and 8th in particular) and leading the league in innings which they post 5 or more runs on the board (currently at 25, 2nd place at 17).
8. July 27th vs. Florida
This Sunday afternoon game saw the Cubs coming off 2 straight 3-2 losses at home in which they had blown leads and wasted good outings from starters. Naturally, that meant Jason Marquis was on the bump and promptly served up a 5-0 lead to the Marlins. At this point, the Cubs were tied with the Brewers in the division, and were traveling to Milwaukee for a big 4-game series the next day. Alfonso Soriano would have none of it, scoring the Cubs first run in the 3rd and tying the game at 5 with a 3-run opposite field homer in the 4th. After Marquis gave up the lead again on a Dan Uggla bomb that still hasn’t landed, Derrek Lee tied it with a homer and
Mike Fontenot hit a bases clearing double to give the Cubs a 9-6 win. Going into the series at Milwaukee up by a game rather than down made a huge difference, especially in the very next game on our list.
9. July 28th vs. Milwaukee
A game in July that felt like a game in September. The first of 4 at Miller Park with just 1 game separating the two teams. The new ace of the Milwaukee staff was on the hill, but the Cubs struck early thanks to Alfonso Soriano, who doubled and scored in the first and homered in the 3rd. “Gopher Ball” Lilly pitched great for 5 innings, but baseball games last 9, and he fell apart in the 6th, allowing 3 runs (including back to back jacks) to surrender the lead. Then this Cubs team showed why this year feels different then all the years past. Instead of rolling over, the Cubs fought to load the bases with one out in the top of the next frame. Derrek (league leader in double plays) Lee stepped to the plate and hit a tailor made ball. Reed Johnson hustled into second, slid into Rickie Weeks, who promptly threw the ball past Prince Fielder and two runs scored to give the Cubs the 4-3 lead. Although Bobby Howry would surrender the lead, the Cubs scored 2 in the top of the 9th against the Brewers “closer” Solomon Torres and took game 1 of what would turn into a crucial 4-game sweep.
10. August 8th vs. St. Louis
The Edmonds game. How else can you title a game where a guy hits 2 homers against his former team and throws the bat at the visitor’s dugout after the first one? After giving the Cubs a 1-0 lead with a homer in the first, Jim Edmonds stepped to the plate with the Cubs trailing 2-1 in the 8th and promptly cracked his 2nd of the game, adding to the Cardinals league-leading blown save total. What might be overlooked in this game was the Cubs’ pen, who allowed only 1 hit in 3.2 IP, allowing for the game winning single by Hank White (aka Henry Blanco) in the bottom of the 11th.
11. August 27th vs. Pittsburgh
Yes it was only 2 days ago, but it is the perfect example of how this club is a 25-man team. The Cubs’ 5th and most inconsistent starter, Jason Marquis, was on the hill, and held the same Pirates that lit up Carlos Zambrano a night earlier to just 5 hits in 7 innings. Meanwhile, a combined 0-for-6 from Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez meant runs would have to come from elsewhere. Tied at 0 in the 7th, Reed Johnson (aka Mr. Hustle) led off with a perfect bunt single. DeRosa kept the hot hand going by doubling him to 3rd, where Reed then hustled home on a grounder by Ronny Cedeno. Next up was Henry Blanco, playing in place of Soto who had 7 RBI the night before. I can’t say it was a perfectly executed squeeze, but the popped up bunt got the job done to score DeRosa and give the Cubs that insurance run they needed to get a rare win when scoring less than 4 runs.
As I complete this article, the Cubs have just pulled off another come from behind late innings dramatic 5-run inning everyone contributes victory, beating the Phillies 6-4 thanks to an 8th inning grand slam by Aramis Ramirez. It’s hard to believe that all the games I just wrote about involved wins by THE CUBS, but that’s what makes this year’s team so special. Let’s hope it continues into September, where the Cubs play 25 of their remaining 28 games at teams currently above .500. Should be exciting.
Dueling Aces
On Monday, CC Sabathia put on another show in Milwaukee, going the distance while giving up just 2 earned runs to improve to 8-0 in 9 starts since being acquired by the Brewers in early July. Not to be outdone, however, Rich Harden helped the Cubs win on Tuesday by going 7 shutout innings, giving up just 2 singles and walking none en route to his 3rd win as a Cub.
Which pitcher has had a bigger impact? Can it even be quantified? Let’s find out.
(And, no, the “bigger” was not a reference to CC’s size)
Overall with Milwaukee, Sabathia has thrown 73 innings in 9 starts, averaging just over 8 IP per game. He has had only one start in which he did not finish 7 innings, which not surprisingly was his only no-decision for the Brewers (although I can’t seem to remember who that was against…) In that department he trumps Harden, who has been removed after 5 IP a number of times as the Cubs try to protect his arm. We all know how that worked out in his first start with the Cubs (See Here). Harden has gone 42 IP in his 7 starts, an average of 6 per game. The impact on the bullpen is tremendous, as anytime Milwaukee can keep theirs from coming into the game it definitely improves their chances of winning. 6 IP will qualify as a quality start, so the Cubs can’t complain if they get it every time out from Harden. And something tells me he will be able to find some extra in the tank come the stretch run and hopefully October.
In those 42 innings with the Cubs, Harden has allowed just 40 baserunners (26 hits and 14 BB), equating to a WHIP of 0.95. Amazingly, 5 of those walks came in the win against Atlanta, and 3 were back-to-back-to-back in the 2nd inning. Sabathia has been nearly as good in that department, allowing just 75 baserunners in 73 IP (1.03 WHIP). In terms of ERA, both have been outstanding, with Harden’s at 1.50 and Sabathia at 1.60. If you discount Harden’s outing against Houston where he allowed 5 runs (4 earned) on 8 hits, his other 6 outings consist of 3 where he allowed 1 ER and 3 where he allowed 0, which equates to just 3 runs in 37.2 IP! As much as I like Sean Gallagher, no way he puts up those numbers. While Sabathia’s individual game lines aren’t always as pretty, he has thrown 5 CGs (including 3 in a row).
The one area in which Sabathia clearly trumps Harden is at the plate. CC loves to hit, plain and simple, and he has shown that by going 6-for-28 (.214) with 1 HR and 4 RBI since joining the Crew. Harden still looks like he is getting adjusted to batting, but did get his first career RBI on Tuesday (a big one at the time). The impact of having a pitcher in the 9th (or 8th) spot in your order who can hit is huge. I wish I knew how many more times Soriano batted with runners on when Zambrano was at the plate vs. the other pitchers, but I do know it definitely helps the guy batting in front of the pitcher if you can’t assume he will be the 3rd out.
Overall, both players have had tremendous impacts on the staff and will be outstanding in the postseason (should the Cubs make it there). To me, it appears the acquisitions in essence cancelled each other out, as both teams improved substantially.
Playing Well Away from Home
It seems
like whenever I write about something that is going wrong with the Cubs, they
manage to turn it around (see Edmonds, Jim). If this continues
to occur, expect a long, detailed article about the Cubs and their inability to get to and
win the World Series.
To get to
the point, about a month ago (25 games), I wrote about the Cubs inability to
hit on the road. After that post was
written, the Cubs lost their next road game in Arizona, and then proceeded to win 8 in a
row and 10 out of the next 11, including sweeps at Milwaukee and Atlanta. Only a tough loss to Florida with a banged up
lineup and Sean Marshall spot starting on 3 days rest prevented the Cubs from
winning 11 in a row. Not that I’m
complaining. Below are some notable
improvements for the Cubs on the road since my last post on the subject. Note: “Before” stats through 50 road games, “After” stats through 62 road games. MLB ranks in parentheses.
Before: 210 Runs (T-17th)
After: 298 Runs (T-8th)
Before: 201 RBI (18th)
After: 287
RBI (8th)
Before: .254 BA (13th)
After: .263 BA (T-6th)
Before: .325 OBP (14th)
After: .338
OBP (3rd)
Before: .715 OPS (16th)
After: .750 OPS (8th)
While the
Cubs have improved on the road, it’s not as if their home stats have tailed
off. The Cubs still lead the majors in
Runs, RBI, BA, OBP and OPS, and are 2nd in HR and SLG at home.
What’s
important to remember in all this is that the Cubs have a unique advantage on
the road that they seem to finally have taken advantage of. Of the 12 road games since the previous
article, the Cubs have played 10 in three very
friendly road locations. Milwaukee is better known as Wrigley North,
and Atlanta and Florida may have seen
more Cubs fans than home fans for the 6 games the Cubs had there. Jeff Francouer described what it feels like
to have visiting fans be heard so loud in your own park: “It’s just
disappointing, when all these Cubs fans come to town and to get swept kind of
feels helpless.”
It’s great
to see the Cubs improve on the road, and I truly hope they can keep this up
down the stretch. Starting September 5th
at Cincinnati, the Cubs play 16 of their final 22 games on the road, comprised
of a 9-game division trip through Cinci, St. Louis and Houston and the final 7
of the regular season in New York and Milwaukee. Unless any of those teams are eliminated from
the playoffs by the time the Cubs come into town, I wouldn’t expect a friendly
atmosphere in any of those parks.
Hello Wisconsin
Chants of “Sweep,
sweep, sweep, sweep” could be heard on WGN Radio this afternoon, loud enough to
the point that it sounded like a home game.
From what I saw, heard and read, this was the atmosphere for all 4 games
at Wrigley North, aka Miller Park, where the Cubs put their road woes aside and
went into the land of Cheese to sweep the Brew Crew and open up a 4.5 game lead
in the Central. A few things stood out
from this series.
1. The Cubs offense showed up on the road.
At least 6
runs in every game and 31 in the 4 game series, numbers unheard of from this
Cubs team who had done next to nothing on the road to date (see previous
entry). In my mind, the key to this offensive
output was scoring first in every game.
Only in Game 1 when the Cubs trailed 3-2 for half an inning did they
ever play from behind. Insurance runs
are much easier to score than tying / go-ahead runs, and the Cubs piled on
plenty of them this week. The Cubs put
up 49 hits in the 4 game series, amazingly having their smallest output (9) in today’s
game where they scored the most runs (11).
2. Intangibles
There are
many ways to define this word, but in terms of sports I like to keep it
simple. Things that don’t show up in the
box score. Things like Reed Johnson’s
slide (which forced the error that did show up the box score), Ryan Braun’s “dive”,
the fact that the Cubs got 7 hits on 17 pitches against Ben Sheets in the 6th
inning of Tuesday’s game, meaning there was no one ready in the Brewers’ pen
when Sheets should have been out of the game, and of course, the home
atmosphere on the road. Little things
lead to big innings, and the Cubs took advantage of everything handed to them
this week.
3. Pitching
The Brewers
started off the series as if it were October, putting C.C. Sabathia and Ben
Sheets on the hill for games 1 and 2.
The Cubs offense was struggling, and with their road woes well
documented it seemed that a split was the best the Cubs could ask for. Not to take anything away from the offense,
but with the exception of some 9th inning lapses by the pen, the
Cubs staff was outstanding.
Ted Lilly -
6 IP, 3 ER, 4K
Carlos
Zambrano – 8 IP, 0 ER, 9K
Ryan
Dempster – 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Rich Harden -
7 IP, 1ER, 9K
28 IP, 5 ER,
31 K. You really can’t ask for much
more.
4. Rich Harden
Yes I know I
just mentioned pitching but I want to give a special “shout out” to Rich. Since joining the Cubs on July 8th,
check out these stats: 24 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 39Ks, 1.11 ERA. Oh yeah, and a 1-1 record. Only on the Cubs. Fellow ex-A’s pitcher Chad Gaudin is 2-1 with
a 1.54 ERA since joining the Cubs while only pitching in 11 2/3 innings, so I
hope nobody is still calling him a “throw-in” to that deal.
However, one of the key factors that led to the outcome of this series occurred before the series even began. On Saturday July 26th, a Cubs extra inning loss coupled with the Brewers’ 9th win in their last 10 put the teams into a tie atop the Central Division standings. The next day, Milwaukee led 4-1 while the Cubs trailed 5-0 early in both games. If those outcomes had stood, the Brewers would have come into the series leading the division for the first time since sometime in May, while the Cubs would have lost 3 in a row at home for what I think would have been the first time all season. Houston’s 7-run 5th and Mike Fontenot’s 3-run double completely changed the momentum going into this huge series, and in this writer’s opinion, allowed the Cubs to tough out a big win in the opener on Monday.
As this
article goes to press, the Cubs now have 4.5 games worth of breathing room in the
division. But don’t get too comfortable
Cubs fans, as we have 9 left against St. Louis (6 at home) and 6 left against
Milwaukee (3 at home). Those 15 games account
for 28% of the remaining games left on the schedule, so nothing is decided just
yet. Next up, the Jason Bay, Xavier
Nady, Damaso Marte-less Pittsburgh Pirates for 3 at Wrigley.
Road Woes
Yesterday’s game was another disappointing road loss for the Cubs, falling 2-0 to the struggling Arizona Diamondbacks and 44-year old Randy Johnson. Incidentally, Johnson moved to 13-0 lifetime against the Cubs, prompting a buddy of mine to say: “I think Randy Johnson could be dead and still throw a shutout against the Cubs”.
The point is, the Cubs are now 21-29 (.420) on the road, compared to an MLB best 37-12 at the Friendly Confines (.755). Clearly there is an advantage to playing at home, the crowds, knowing the ballpark, sleeping in your own bed, etc… but a 17 game difference? Something is going on, and I don’t think it’s the pitching. Here’s why.
The stats below are through 99 games (49 Home, 50 Road), so all things equal they should be close to even. Unfortunately, they are not. Here’s the breakdown:
Home – 308 Runs (1st in the majors)
Away – 210 Runs (T-17th in MLB)
Home – 67 HRs (3rd in the NL)
Away – 43 HRs (T-11th in NL)
Home -
288 RBI – 1st in MLB (lead by 12)
Away – 201 RBI (T-18th in MLB)
Home -
.305 BA – (1st
in MLB and the only NL team
over .300)
Away – .254 BA (13th in MLB)
Home – .387 OBP (1st in MLB by 11 points)
Away – .325 OBP (14th in MLB)
Home – .491 SLG (1st in NL)
Away – .391 SLG (10th in NL)
Home – .879 OPS (1st in NL, 2nd in MLB by .001)
Away - .715 OPS (9th in NL, 16th in MLB)
So without looking at the pitching splits, it’s pretty clear that the Cubs aren’t hitting on the road. I know you didn’t need any statistics to figure that out (the big fat 0 they put up yesterday was a big hint), but some of those differences are pretty significant and have to be attributable to something other than the crowd.
The Near Collapse
Rich Harden’s debut as a Chicago Cub went just as planned. For 7 innings. Harden was lights out for 5.1 innings yesterday, throwing 96 pitches (66 for strikes) and fanning 10. The Cubs offense was also hitting on all cylinders in the first half of yesterday’s game, scoring 7 times in innings 2-4. CubBlog favorite Jim Edmonds had a HR and 4 RBIs, sparking the Cubs to a 7-0 lead.
While listening to Pat and Ron in the 9th, I didn’t even consider the possibility that we could lose the game. Then the wheels fell off, and it’s pretty clear that something is up with Marmol. I mentioned in this June entry that Marmol had been pitching a lot (see #3), but now that he has been getting a great deal of rest and pitching in less important situations, the probability that this is a mental block is getting stronger. The Cubs are definitely going to need Marmol on track for the stretch run, so let’s hope his time at the ASG gets him back where he needs to be.
Back to the game, Sean Marshall pitched brilliantly out of the pen, just days after being in the rotation. I don’t know from experience, but I’m pretty sure that it is a tough transition to make. He’s like our Mark DeRosa of the pitching staff. After throwing his 2nd scoreless inning, Marshall led off the 11th with a base hit and moved to second on a walk to DeRo. He was forced out at 3rd on Mike Fontenot’s bunt that was hit just a bit too hard, but the next batter was Reed Johnson and he singled home DeRo (on a very exciting play at the plate) to win the game.
What could have been a devastating loss turned into another exciting win at the Friendly Confines. The Cubs are attmepting to finish the first half with a sweep of the Giants, but they face a tough task as Tim Lincecum (10-2) takes the bump for the Giants today.
Hendry Strikes Back
Approximately 48 hours ago, I wrote this in an entry in response to the C.C. Sabathia acquisition by the Brewers: “Plus, there are still 24 days left of the trading season, and Jim
Hendry will be working the phones trying to add another starter to the
Cubs rotation (Rich Harden perhaps).”
Well it certainly didn’t take 24 days, as Jim Hendry moved quickly to acquire the A’s right hander on Tuesday. Harden and righty Chad Gaudin head to Chicago while CubBlog favorites Sean Gallagher and Matt Murton head to Oakland along with Eric Patterson and minor league catching prospect Josh Donaldson.
The immediate reaction to this trade was “YESSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!” After some consideration, however, my next reaction was that we just traded for Mark Prior v2. Unhittable when healthy, but unhealthy more often than not. Harden has already pitched more innings this year (77.0), than in 2006 and 2007 combined (72.1), and that includes a 3-week stint on the DL this year for shoulder problems. This of course only includes innings pitched in the majors, not in simulated games (a category in which Mark Prior is among the all time career leaders).
In my opinion, there are two ways to look at it.
1) The Brewers acquired the best available player with a package of prospects that the Cubs were unable to match. The Cubs went out and acquired the next best available player and paid a pretty good price.
2) The Cubs acquired a player in Harden who is one of the best, but has a very bad history of inability to stay healthy, and whose fastball has dropped in speed over his past few starts.
So look at it whichever way you choose, but if (and I did say if) the Cubs take this team into October, and Carlos Zambrano and a healthy Rich Harden are slated to start games 1, 2, 5 and 6 of a playoff series, is there anyone who would pick against them? I may be biased, but I know I wouldn’t.
Lost among the Harden hoopla is the acquisition of Chad Gaudin. Don’t call this guy a throw-in, as he will provide much needed long relief in place of Gallagher (or Marquis who refuses to accept a role in the pen). He has pitched very well in Oakland, has played for Lou briefly in Tampa, and will be a welcome addition to the Rajun Cajuns squad forming along with TheRiot and Fontenot. In all seriouness, his presence in the pen will give Marmol and Howry some additional rest, which may be the biggest key in the Cubs run towards the postseason.
Are the Brew Crew the Front Runners?
When I first heard about this trade, my immediate reaction was “Oh crap”. The Brewers now have Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia at the top of their rotation, a potent offense, and 43 out of 74 remaining games against teams currently under .500. Then I read an article by Jayson Stark which contained 1 sentence putting everything into perspective. It read: “The Brewers may have leaped over the Cubs as The NL Team You’d Least
Want to Face in October, but I’m still taking the Cubs as the favorites
in this division.”
The Brewers are definitely the team you do not want to face in a short series, there is no arguing that fact. But Sabathia only makes the Brewers better 1 out of every 5 days (unless he becomes the next Carlos Zambrano and becomes an outstanding pinch hitter).
Say he makes 16 starts for the Brew Crew. The most wins he can bring to the team is 16, which yes, is a lot. But that assumes the Brewers win every time he takes the bump (and they have Eric Gagne in a shaky bullpen), which isn’t very realistic. In addition, he is taking the place of their 5th starter in the rotation. Assuming the Crew would have gone 8-8 in his 16 starts, in this case C.C. is only bringing a max of 8 wins to the table.
So yes, adding Sabathia makes the Brewers a much better team and drastically improves their chances of winning the Central and making a run at the World Series, but let’s not overblow the impact he will make. Plus, there are still 24 days left of the trading season, and Jim Hendry will be working the phones trying to add another starter to the Cubs rotation (Rich Harden perhaps).
Why Won’t the Cardinals Go Away?
It’s more than halfway through the season, the Cubs are 16 games over .500, and have a 2.5 game lead in the NL Central. So why am I not happy? It’s because the Cardinals won’t go away. The smiling man pictured below (probably because he is drunk) and his right hand man, pitching coach Dave Duncan, have taken a team comprised of Albert Pujols and a bunch of guys you’ve never heard of and led them to the 2nd best record in the NL at 48-37.
Here is a list of names of pitchers who have started for the Cards so far this year: Kyle Lohse, Braden Looper, Adam Wainwright, Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Pineiro, Mitchell Boggs, Brad Thompson and Mike Parisi. If you knew more than 2 players on this list you either live in the St. Louis area or have played fantasy baseball for more than 5 years. This group of no-names has combined to go 38-23 this year, and that record would probably be better if it wasn’t for the 18 blown saves from the St. Louis bullpen this year (thank you Boxer). The Cardinals have Mark Mulder, Chris Carpenter and Matt Clement on or ready to return from the DL as well, which would have scared me 2-3 years ago.
Aside from Pujols, the only other player on the team batting over .300 is journeyman Aaron Miles, and tied for 2nd place (behind Pujols who missed 2 weeks) in HR are Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel, the former pitcher. Nobody on their team has stolen more than 6 bases, and their bench is full of players that even the most die hard fans must be asking each other where they came from.
So how are they in 2nd place? How do they contend year after year? My natural reaction would be to say they cheat, or that they play Kansas City 6 times per year, but due to stringent steroid testing and a 3-game sweep by the Royals this year, those arguments really don’t make much sense. Looking over this team again and again, I just keep waiting for them to hit the wall and start giving up 10 runs per game, but it doesn’t happen. So I’m stumped.
Games 4,5,6 of the 15 game season series begin on Friday, with Big Z making his triumphant return from the DL to start Game 1. The outcome of this series could really have an impact on the rest of the season, as a 3 game sweep by StL could put them in first place, while a sweep by the Cubs will put some major distance between them and the Cards, meaning StL and the Brew Crew will be fighting for the Wild Card. Of course, it will probably end up 2-1.
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